Diagnosis for Democracy
Insights into the State of Our Union
A Blog by Rob Tenery, MD


The Democrats May Leave Him No Choice

By Rob Tenery, MD on January 11, 2019

The latest buzz-term floated by the Democrats is that Trump’s concern with our southern border is a ‘manufactured crisis’. It depends on which statistics you believe about the number of illegal aliens that end up in this country each year, their incarceration rates and how much they drain this country’s support systems that are normally set aside for our citizens. With each year, drug smuggling grows, the crimes committed by illegal aliens expand and the growing number of individuals that are here illegally is continues to push the entitlement programs to their limits.

Those numbers have been looked at by most recent administrations and without exception the conclusion has been that it is at least a problem and needs to be addressed. Only until Trump came along did it become a priority upon which he garnered over 63 million votes of support in the 2016 election. And only then did the Democrats decide to oppose Trump’s proposals and not work with him on some sort of improved barrier.

Reportedly around 3 thousand illegal immigrants come into this country a day. Most are processed and assigned hearings to see if they will be allowed to stay. The facilities to house them are full to overflowing. Thus, many are released into this country to await their hearing date. Around 95% never return for their court date, disappearing into the shadows of this country. Of those that do return for their hearing, most are returned to their native country. The numbers awaiting hearings reportedly are around 300,000 and those that are here illegally on a more permanent basis have been estimated to be 20 million, but some experts have put it at double that number.

Picking whatever numbers one believes, this is not a ‘manufactured crisis’ as the Democratic spokespersons are regurgitating. But one that has taken several administrations in the making. Trump campaigned, and probably the number one reason he won, on the pledge to deal with the problems of drugs, crimes and human trafficking at our southern border.

During the two years of his presidency, Trump has made offers and the Democrats have put forward counteroffers, to deal with the border situation. Now, they are further apart than ever as the problem at the border continues to worsen. Back in charge of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi has so far rejected any compromise.

With the government shutdown, the clock is ticking, similar to a game of ‘chicken’. If the Democrats don’t counter, Trump is forced to make a decision that will be the defining moment of his presidency. If he backs off his shutdown without reaching a compromise, several things occur: He will lose the support of his conservative base. The border problems will worsen. And any respect, around the world, he has gained for standing up for his promises, vanish.

Trump is a fighter. Since he already has money and the notoriety, his only reason for throwing his hat in the ring, as the campaigned on, was to make America better. And shoring up the southern border is his way of dealing with ‘his’ crisis.

My prediction is that Trump will quickly end the government shutdown if he feels the Democrats are not going to counter and almost simultaneously issue an Executive Order to ‘build the wall’. The reason he will use is that increasing border security with a wall of some variety is the only way to affectively deal with this crisis. Probably next to follow, will be for the opposition to file with a sympathetic district court for an injunction to stop Trump’s Order, which they probably will. At the same time, the Democratic controlled House of Representatives will begin impeachment proceedings against him that will most likely pass. Since the Senate Republicans are even more in charge than before this last election, they will most likely not proceed with a trial to impeach him. This is similar to the same scenario with Bill Clinton.

The ruling by the District Court will ultimately end up at the Supreme Court to judge whether Trump’s Executive Order to ‘build the wall’ is Constitutional. Most legal scholars seem to feel the president has that authority. But with the Supreme Court so divided along conservative versus liberal lines, it may be Chief Justice Roberts who becomes the deciding vote.

If the Democratic leaders were not blinded with trying to dump Trump because they still can’t accept the results of the last presidential election, they would realize their best option is a compromise tied to resolving the DACA problems. Trump might do that, even without their compromising. Then they wouldn’t get credit for anything.

However, the ultimate decision on Trump’s choice will fall to the voters come the 2020 election, that is if he runs for a second term. 





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